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APG, Pulse Crop News Fall 2018 Issue

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Market Outlook panels are also a significant highlight from the conference. The outlook forecasted for individual pulse crops are below. • Len l - The outlook for len l is generally flat, and there will be a surplus to work through, however, market analysts predict that by 2019 India will be back in the market. For Canadian len ls, the high point for red len l was the 2016-17 market with produc on being over four million acres. Since then, there has been a drop by almost half forecasted for the 2018- 19 year. Green len l is increasing in acreage from the 2016-17 year but only to around 1.5 million acres. Canada's current buyers are Turkey, Mexico, and the UAE. • Pea – Field pea was also impacted by market access challenges. World field pea produc on overall is down from the highs of recent years. Canada is also seeing this trend with produc on reduced by one million metric tonnes from the all me high. A major reason has been India's policy. Market analysts suggested that growers have found a floor price of $7. They will sell when the market hits the $7 value and they will hold, if they can, when it is under. China picked up imports due to India's policy. They are finding ways of incorpora ng the addi onal peas into feed markets. The trade is watching the Black Sea countries and looking to what growers will be doing, especially as Black Sea countries begin to gain access into China. Green pea prices are s ll holding at a $2 premium to yellow pea. • Dry Bean – The bean industry is being affected by the US/EU tariffs. A 25% tariff is being applied by the EU on US bean imports. Some Canadian companies are being challenged because they export from their US sites. Canada typically trends at 15% of the US produc on and it is predominantly export oriented. • Chickpea – There is increased profile in the world chickpea market, and India is the major player in chickpea produc on at over 13.5 million MT. Globally, there are more Desi chickpeas produced versus Kabuli. The Canadian market is predominantly Kabuli type and the Canadian acreage increased this year. Analysts feel that tariffs and crop size will be affec ng the market this year. The Canadian main marketplace is US and Pakistan, and there are observa ons that the domes c market is increasing. Analysts predict that farmers in Alberta and Saskatchewan can hold their crops for one or two years, and may choose to enter the market with a larger crop, selling half and holding the remaining. "Overall, the mood was one of wai ng," Fischbuch observed. "The trade is looking to see when market access opportuni es are alleviated, and they are searching to tap into new opportuni es. Next year the PSCC will take place in Montreal in August and the trade will come together to connect, learn and do business, and hopefully there will be greater op mism for the industry at that me." Viterra's Blair Roth (le ) and Pulse Canada's Gordon Bacon (right) speak with Trade Policy Advisor Mike Gifford at PSCC. F A L L 2 0 1 8 | 2 9

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