By Chuck Penner, Le Field Commodity Research
2 2
It's true that each marke ng year is
unique and 2018 has probably been
more unique than any other, at least
for pulses. Heavy global supplies and
Indian import blockades have created
a very unique set of challenges for
pulse crops, heading into 2018-19.
In previous reports, we've talked
about seasonal price tendencies.
These pa erns are based on market
factors that recur most years and are
rela vely predictable. The ques on
for 2018-19 is whether the unique
and unpredictable events influencing
pulse markets have negated these
pa erns. Our view is that the basic
direc on in the price tendencies will
show up again this year, but the peaks
and valleys will be a li le skewed.
Both supply and demand events cause
the moves in the seasonal pa erns.
Going into the summer, buying tends
to slow down as importers look ahead
to the next crop on the horizon. The
only excep on is when a serious
problem with the Canadian crop
triggers some panic buying, but that's
not the case this year. Depending
on the price outlook and Canadian
supply levels, farmer selling o en
picks up in the summer months to
take advantage of higher old-crop
prices or to get some bins cleaned
out. Finally, the surge in selling off the
combine adds the final bit of seasonal
pressure. This combina on of factors
causes the low point in the seasonals.
PRICES
ARE SEASONAL PATTERNS IMPACTING
PULSES THIS YEAR?
