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Pulse Crop News Fall 2017

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30 WHY AREN'T PRICES RESPONDING TO THE 2017 DROUGHT? PRICES Chuck Penner, Le field Commodity Research Whenever a year like 2017 shows up, the inevitable ques on farmers tend to ask is why aren't prices going higher. It makes sense that if yields are threatened, bids should start to respond. Some years it turns out that way but so far in 2017, prices for most pulse crops haven't shown much life or, in some cases, have actually weakened. There's no ques on that Canadian pulse yields have been reduced. Most of the damage has been done in the southern prairies and crop ra ngs for peas, len ls and chickpeas have been well below average. In Alberta, the provincial crop report shows a steady decline in the good/ exc ra ngs for peas even though condi ons in central and northern parts of the province aren't too bad. Ra ngs for Alberta len ls look worse and crop ra ngs for Saskatchewan pulses are even more nega ve. So what gives? Shouldn't prices be up? The first thing to remember is that crop ra ngs don't tell the whole tale and the general look of the crop may not reflect yield poten al. When it comes to pulses, we're hearing things like, "it doesn't look like much but it's podding pre y well", or "my len ls (peas or chickpeas) are doing okay but everyone else's are lousy". That's a pre y good sign crops (especially pulses) are doing a li le be er weathering the drought. And buyers are regularly touring through the prairies and talking to farmers, so they'll have a good idea of what the crop poten al is. Another important factor is the level of old-crop supplies that are available coming into 2017/18. Some crops like green len ls and kabuli chickpeas have almost none. Others such as yellow and green peas or red len ls have a few more available and that will help offset the lower 2017 produc on. While Canada is the world's largest exporter of pulses, we aren't the only ones. Other countries have seen our successes and are raising produc on as well. Acreage of len ls (especially greens) and chickpeas "What gives? Shouldn't prices be going up?"

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