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Chuck Penner, Le field Commodity Research WILL CANADA EVER EXPORT PULSES TO INDIA AGAIN? PRICES Yes, this headline sounds a li le extreme but the ini al reac ons to the Indian import tariffs on peas, len ls and chickpeas seemed almost that panic-stricken. Even though there were a few clues that something might be in the works, the sudden tariff announcements by the Indian government caught many people off guard and raised a lot of ques ons. The short answer is "yes", pulses will con nue to flow to India. The longer answer is that the ming of a return to regular trade depends on type of crop and weather events. Some pulse types are already being exported into India while others will take a longer me to start moving. It's worth no ng that Canadian pulse exports to India were already seriously lagging prior to the import tariff announcements. Back in the summer of 2017, Canadian traders were indica ng Indian buyers were very quiet as supplies had started to build up in warehouses there. A record Indian 2016/17 pulse crop was the start of the logjam, while heavy imports from emerging compe tors in eastern Europe and the Black Sea region in July and August didn't help either. Proof of the quiet demand was the very slow pace of Canadian pea and len l exports in the fall of 2017. Keep in mind, the pea tariff was only announced in early November and the len l/chickpea tariff was announced in late December. Regardless, the Indian tariffs sent a strong signal to the market, essen ally making it official that India simply didn't want more pulses, at least for the me being. Even while that was happening, there were already cracks in the wall. In December, Canada s ll exported 10,000 tonnes of green peas into India in spite of the tariff. Local supplies of green peas were already running low, as seen by spiking Indian green pea prices. Since then, prices for green len ls have also strengthened in India, sugges ng buyers there will need to start entering the market again. The bigger concerns are for yellow peas and red len ls, which normally make up the bulk of Canadian pulse exports to India. This is a situa on that will take longer to resolve. Indian traders are s ll holding adequate inventories of these two crops. Small amounts of cheaper Black Sea yellow peas are managing to trade into India and the rabi (winter) harvest is now underway. This means there's no real concern about supplies of yellow peas and red len ls over the next few months. 3 2

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