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P U L S E C R O P N E W S F A L L 2 0 1 8 | 2 3 For red len ls, the response will be delayed un l India decides to start buying len ls again and that may not happen un l some me in early 2019, at the earliest. For both red and green len ls, the plen ful supplies will limit the size of the recovery in 2018-19 with the seasonal peak less pronounced. That's especially the case as farmers have lowered their price expecta ons and will be selling on small moves higher. The bo om line is that seasonal trends will s ll hold for pulses in 2018-19, but they'll be less no ceable than usual and the recovery will be delayed. Even though other factors come into play, the size and ming of India's purchases will ul mately determine how well the market recovers from the lows. Some of that is poli cs but, as always, weather will have the final say. In 2018, the seasonal decline in yellow pea prices started a bit later due to the stronger Chinese buying in May and June, but eventually started to turn lower. One concern this fall is that the normal recovery star ng in late September will be muted with India out of the picture for the me being. Demand from China will help, but won't likely match the huge surge in purchases that normally comes from India. Just how bad the seasonal lows get and how long they last will largely depend on how impa ent farmers are with selling the 2018 crop. Without the usual heavy Indian buying, it wouldn't take a lot of extra selling pressure to cause the market to drop further. The good news is that the yellow pea market will recover in 2018-19 and eventually follow the seasonal trend. It's just going to take a li le longer and the harvest lows might be lower than usual. Steady Chinese buying and the eventual return of India to the market will provide the underlying support. It also looks like Canadian supplies won't be all that heavy. The yellow pea seasonal pa ern tends to peak in spring, but that will depend largely on the next pea and chickpea crop in India, which is harvested in February to March of 2019. Green peas will also see a harvest low, but exports don't depend as heavily on India, making that less of a factor. As a result, the price dip for greens will be moderate and the recovery quicker. At the same me, 2018- 19 supplies probably won't be any larger than last year, which makes the market look friendlier. Len l prices also follow a similar seasonal pa ern as peas but the recovery phase tends to be much quicker for green len ls than reds. This year, that's going to be a challenge since Canadian green len l acres expand this year and, with decent yields, supplies will be heavy.

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