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www.pulse.ab.ca Members will vote on a potential service fee reduction from 1% to 0.75% at the provincial Annual General Meeting on January 31, 2018 during FarmTech. The change would take effect on August 1, 2018, pending approval by the Alberta Agricultural Products Marketing Council. APG welcomes grower input on this matter in person or via the contact information available at: POTENTIAL APG LEVY FEE REDUCTION There were two immediate reac ons to the announcement. Very quickly, Canadian buyers either pulled their bids en rely or dropped them sharply. In some cases, yellow pea bids were down $2.00 per bushel, roughly a 25% drop from earlier in the week. At the other end, yellow pea prices in Mumbai jumped by $80 US per tonne as the import restric on had its intended effect. Keep in mind, these responses were both just an ini al reac on and further moves will happen as buyers and sellers adjust to the new reality. In the short-term, pea bids to Canadian farmers will remain depressed as the slowdown in trade is felt. Peas from various origins are already in vessels and these will need to find a new home or be priced at a large discount into India. But if prices managed to stay higher in India, Canadian farmers won't feel the full cost of the 50% tariff. Regardless, it will s ll be painful. Looking a few months ahead, the outcome of the Indian rabi crop will be key in determining whether the tariff stays or goes (or is adjusted). With plan ng now underway, forecasts are calling for a large increase in chickpea acreage, which wouldn't help the situa on, since that's what yellow peas subs tute for. It's not clear yet whether this jump in Indian pea prices will also trigger more acres of peas. There are concerns about dryness in key producing areas, but that's certainly not something to bet on. Even longer-term, lower pea prices in western Canada (and elsewhere) will discourage acreage in 2018. At some point down the road, smaller crops in Canada and expor ng countries will mean fewer supplies for India and would eventually give prices there a li . At that point, they'll need to start again with another round of market interference. P U L S E C R O P N E W S W I N T E R 2 0 1 8 | 3 3

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